New Zealand only allows pokies in certain objects and for entertainment purposes. Many gamblers spend vast amounts of hard-earned money on pokies each year, and it is no wonder, since they are made exactly for that purpose.
This article will try to explain how impossible it is to beat a pokie machine; how each spin is totally random and independent from any preceding spins. Pokies are designed for the house to win. They are made to make a profit.
You Can Control Only One Thing When Playing Pokies — Yourself
Kiwis lost $941 million on pokies in 2003. Most of this money comes from poorer areas where machines are intentionally placed by the gaming industry. Many more unfortunate people are drawn to the machines hoping that they will change their lives.
About 90% of problem gamblers cite pokies as their main type of gambling. They claim that the wide availability, easy access, and low barrier to entry are all leading factors in their addiction.
The gambling industry operates behind an iron curtain, and it keeps details of the machines and the odds of winning hidden from the general public. However, in this article, we’ll try and shed some light on the workings of these machines.
But let’s start from the beginning.
History
When pokies were first invented, they were mechanical. Every symbol was an actual mechanical slot. Most of the older pokies had 20 stops (slots) per reel.
A problem with the older pokies is that there was a small number of combinations — around 8,000. This meant that the prizes would be relatively small, which meant that pokies weren’t that popular at their outset. Pokies were a really small percentage of the gambling tax back in those days — quite a large difference compared to today’s 50%.
The Electronic Era
When computer chips came along, the gambling industry pounced to figure out how to replace mechanical slots with digital ones. This offered them the chance to increase the number of possibilities, which also increased the value of prizes that could now be offered.
The Need For Speed
- Today’s pokies are much much faster than its old mechanical counterparts.
- Usually, the player can, at the very least, bet every five seconds. Regulations do not specify any minimal spin duration. However, there are murmurs of possible legislation specifying a 3.5 second spin duration.
- If the player is wagering nine lines on a five-cent machine, and five credits per line, they’re wagering $2.25 every bet. While that doesn’t sound like much, it’s an illusion. If the machine is fast, it stacks up fast. $2.25×12 spins per minute times 60 minutes ends up at about $1620.
Betting Limits
- Certain pokies allows you to wager as little as one credit or as much as 200 credits per spin. Depending on the type of pokie, players can wager as little as 1c or as high as $2.50. The current maximum bet in New Zealand is $2.50 on non-casino pokies.
- Some pokies allow you to bet on multiple lines (up to 25 most of the time). If players are betting on multiple lines, they could be spending $2.50×25 per spin or much much more on casino pokies.
How Much Can I Actually Lose?
- If you are playing on a 20c machine (which has a house edge of 5%) at the maximum bet every five seconds, you lose approximately $80/hr.
- If you’re playing on average three hours per day, the expected loss is $240. If you play three times a week, this turns into $720; on a yearly level, that turns out to be $37,440.
- This is compounded if you play on casino pokies, where the maximum wager can go higher than $2.50.
What You See When You’re Playing Pokies
Most of these examples are based on three-reel pokies, which tend to be rare these days. However, they’re a good example on how the whole thing works.
Payouts
The Centre line pays the following way:
| Three Bars | 5,000 |
| Three Cherries | 1,000 |
| Three Plums | 200 |
| Three Watermelons | 100 |
| Three Oranges | 50 |
| Three Lemons | 25 |
| Any Two Cherries | 10 |
| Any One Cherry | 2 |
The Reels
A typical pokie has 22 symbols . However, newer pokies can have up to 90 symbols. When you press the spin button, the game plays a “reel spin” animation, but in reality, this has no effect on the result. The result is determined by the software, and the animation is purely for aesthetical enjoyment.
What You Don’t See When You’re Playing Pokies
Unlike the original mechanical pokies, new pokie machines use virtual stops and virtual reels. Furthermore, these stops and reels are stored in the software of the pokies, and they determine the number of stops that are assigned to each symbol.
Furthermore, the number of stops doesn’t actually match the number of symbols on the reels that are actually visible.
A standard three-reel pokie has 64 virtual stops per reel — the 22 symbols on the video display are actually an illusion.
Newer machines can have up to 512 virtual stops per reel. These virtual stops allows the gambling industry to program the number of stops for each symbol on each individual reel. Therefore, different reels are programmed with a different number of winning symbols.
The Infamous RNG
Pokies have a random number generator (RNG) that is calculating combinations all the time, with thousands of possibilities being generated each second. The very instant you pull the lever, the RNG has already determined the result.
For a three-reel pokie, the RNG picks three numbers; these numbers are then divided by the number of virtual stops. For example, 64-stop reel divides the number by 64.
Virtual Stops
| Symbol | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 |
| Bar | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Cherry | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Plum | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Watermelon | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Orange | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Lemon | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Blank | 28 | 37 | 42 |
| Total | 64 | 64 | 64 |
This basically means that the different reels have asymmetrical chances.
Reel 1 Mapping Example:
| 1. | Bar | 17. | Watermelon | 33. | Orange | 49. | Plum |
| 2. | Cherry | 18 | Blank | 34. | Lemon | 50. | Plum |
| 3. | Blank | 19. | Lemon | 35. | Plum | 51. | Lemon |
| 4. | Orange | 20. | Orange | 36. | Lemon | 52. | Orange |
| 5. | Blank | 21. | Blank | 37. | Blank | 53. | Blank |
| 6. | Lemon | 22. | Bar | 38. | Blank | 54. | Watermelon |
| 7. | Blank | 23. | Blank | 39. | Orange | 55. | Blank |
| 8. | Blank | 24. | Cherry | 40. | Watermelon | 56. | Cherry |
| 9. | Cherry | 25. | Bar | 41. | Blank | 57. | Blank |
| 10. | Blank | 26. | Lemon | 42. | Blank | 58. | Blank |
| 11. | Blank | 27. | Blank | 43. | Lemon | 59. | Blank |
| 12. | Plum | 28. | Plum | 44. | Blank | 60. | Blank |
| 13. | Bar | 29. | Orange | 45. | Watermelon | 61. | Cherry |
| 14. | Blank | 30. | Blank | 46. | Blank | 62. | Blank |
| 15. | Blank | 31. | Blank | 47. | Lemon | 63. | Orange |
| 16. | Watermelon | 32. | Watermelon | 48. | Blank | 64. | Plum |
Reel 2 Mapping Example:
| 1. | Plum | 17. | Blank | 33. | Plum | 49. | Cherry |
| 2. | Blank | 18 | Blank | 34. | Blank | 50. | Blank |
| 3. | Blank | 19. | Orange | 35. | Blank | 51. | Orange |
| 4. | Orange | 20. | Blank | 36. | Blank | 52. | Blank |
| 5. | Blank | 21. | Blank | 37. | Blank | 53. | Blank |
| 6. | Lemon | 22. | Lemon | 38. | Blank | 54. | Blank |
| 7. | Blank | 23. | Blank | 39. | Orange | 55. | Plum |
| 8. | Blank | 24. | Blank | 40. | Watermelon | 56. | Blank |
| 9. | Blank | 25. | Orange | 41. | Lemon | 57. | Blank |
| 10. | Blank | 26. | Blank | 42. | Blank | 58. | Lemon |
| 11. | Blank | 27. | Blank | 43. | Lemon | 59. | Blank |
| 12. | Cherry | 28. | Watermelon | 44. | Blank | 60. | Watermelon |
| 13. | Blank | 29. | Blank | 45. | Blank | 61. | Watermelon |
| 14. | Blank | 30. | Orange | 46. | Blank | 62. | Blank |
| 15. | Blank | 31. | Blank | 47. | Blank | 63. | Blank |
| 16. | Blank | 32. | Bar | 48. | Lemon | 64. | Blank |
Reel 3 Mapping Example:
| 1. | Cherry | 17. | Blank | 33. | Blank | 49. | Cherry |
| 2. | Blank | 18 | Blank | 34. | Orange | 50. | Blank |
| 3. | Blank | 19. | Orange | 35. | Watermelon | 51. | Blank |
| 4. | Bar | 20. | Blank | 36. | Watermelon | 52. | Blank |
| 5. | Blank | 21. | Blank | 37. | Watermelon | 53. | Blank |
| 6. | Blank | 22. | Lemon | 38. | Cherry | 54. | Blank |
| 7. | Lemon | 23. | Plum | 39. | Blank | 55. | Blank |
| 8. | Watermelon | 24. | Blank | 40. | Lemon | 56. | Blank |
| 9. | Blank | 25. | Watermelon | 41. | Lemon | 57. | Lemon |
| 10. | Plum | 26. | Blank | 42. | Orange | 58. | Blank |
| 11. | Blank | 27. | Blank | 43. | Blank | 59. | Plum |
| 12. | Blank | 28. | Bar | 44. | Blank | 60. | Blank |
| 13. | Blank | 29. | Blank | 45. | Cherry | 61. | Orange |
| 14. | Bar | 30. | Blank | 46. | Blank | 62. | Blank |
| 15. | Orange | 31. | Blank | 47. | Blank | 63. | Blank |
| 16. | Blank | 32. | Blank | 48. | Plum | 64. | Lemon |
What Happens When You Pull The Lever?
After you pull the lever, the RNG picks three numbers. These numbers are then divided by the number of virtual stops (64 in this case), and the divided number is the one that will be used in the spin.
Let’s say the RNG got 20 for reel 1, three for reel 2, and 23 for reel 3. The program then uses the mapping patterns of the reels to determine the symbols.
| Spin | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 | Result | |
| 1. | Randomly Generated Number | 20 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Symbol | Orange | Blank | Blank |
Let’s do a couple of more spins and go through this again:
| Spin | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 | Result | |
| 1. | Randomly Generated Number | 20 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Symbol | Orange | Blank | Blank | ||
| 2. | Randomly Generated Number | 5 | 12 | 46 | 0 |
| Symbol | Blank | Blank | Blank | ||
| 3. | Randomly Generated Number | 26 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Symbol | Lemon | Orange | Cherry | ||
| 4. | Randomly Generated Number | 32 | 19 | 49 | 2 |
| Symbol | Watermelon | Orange | Cherry |
Out of those, only the fourth spin won any money, and it only won two credits. At this point, many players may start thinking illogically, start to think they’re going to be on a streak, etc. This small win is then reinvested by almost all gamblers back into the game in hopes of achieving an even bigger one.
How the Mapping Program Actually Works
The mapping program is set up in a way that, over a long period of time, all possible combinations will be hit the same number of times. This, in tandem with RNG, which picks thousands of numbers randomly each second, truly makes it possible. These two systems working together is what players see after they spin.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term
It is extremely important to realise that, in the short-term, results will vary. They can vary from paying out frequently to not at all. It is also important to realize that the pokie is never ever “due” to pay out any larger prizes. Furthermore, over a long period, results reflect the way the machine was programmed. This means that a machine is never closer to paying out one of the larger prizes whether it was spun once or a million times.
A common gambler’s fallacy is to assume that if the machine is rarely paying out, the chances that you’ll win increase. This means that no matter how long you’re playing, your chances of winning will stay the same. Because of this, there is a certain tendency in gamblers to continue playing the same machine for a longer period of time even though your chances are actually the same.
All of the aforementioned components combined with the themes, graphics, sounds, and other features created to keep players gambling longer, make pokies a highly effective and popular form of gambling — so it is not surprising why pokies account for so much of the gambling revenue.
How Are Payouts Calculated?
For a three-reel, 64-stop machine, the total possible number of results is 262,144 (64x64x64). The payout is calculated by multiplying each possible result for each winning combination by the appropriate payoff.
Let’s take three bars as an example. There are four stops on reel 1, three stops on reel 2, one stop on reel 3 (4x3x1), divide that by the total number of results (262,144) times the payout of $5,000, which equals 22.89%.
Non-casino pokies offer smaller maximum payouts, which are capped at $500 on standalone machines or $1,000 for jackpot/linked machines.
Take, for example, this “Machine A”:
| Symbol | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 | Number of Winning Combinations | Total Possible Results | Winning Payout | Payout Rate | Odds of Results 1 in: |
| Bar | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 262,144 | $5000 | 22.89% | 21845 |
| Cherry | 5 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 262,144 | $1000 | 15.26% | 6554 |
| Plum | 6 | 4 | 3 | 72 | 262,144 | $200 | 5.48% | 3641 |
| Watermelon | 6 | 5 | 4 | 120 | 262,144 | $100 | 4.58% | 2185 |
| Orange | 7 | 5 | 6 | 210 | 262,144 | $50 | 4.01% | 1248 |
| Lemon | 8 | 6 | 6 | 288 | 262,144 | $25 | 2.75% | 910 |
| 2 Cherries | 2312 | 262,144 | $10 | 8.82% | 113 | |||
| 1 Cherry | 40312 | 262,144 | $2 | 30.76% | 7 | |||
| Blanks | 28 | 37 | 42 | |||||
| Total | 64 | 64 | 64 | 94.55% |
A simple change in the programing can dramatically decrease or increase the house edge. However, these types of changes do not necessarily improve your odds. Even though “Machine B” looks identical to “Machine A” to the naked eye, in reality, “Machine B” has a completely different number of assigned stops for many of its symbols.
Machine B:
| Symbol | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 | Number of Winning Combinations | Total Possible Results | Winning Payout | Payout Rate | Odds of Results 1 in: |
| Bar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 262,144 | $5000 | 1.91% | 262144 |
| Cherry | 5 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 262,144 | $1000 | 15.26% | 6554 |
| Plum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 262,144 | $200 | 0.08% | 262144 |
| Watermelon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 262,144 | $100 | 0.04% | 262144 |
| Orange | 5 | 5 | 4 | 100 | 262,144 | $50 | 1.91% | 2621 |
| Lemon | 15 | 16 | 17 | 4080 | 262,144 | $25 | 38.91% | 64 |
| 2 Cherries | 2312 | 262,144 | $10 | 8.82% | 113 | |||
| 1 Cherry | 40312 | 262,144 | $2 | 30.76% | 7 | |||
| Blanks | 28 | 37 | 42 | |||||
| Total | 64 | 64 | 64 | 97.69% |
Even though Machine B has a smaller house edge than Machine A, the chances for winning the top prizes are severely reduced, while the number of times you win $25 have been greatly increased.
“Machine C” is a good example of how pokies with large jackpot prizes work:
| Symbol | Reel 1 | Reel 2 | Reel 3 | Number of Winning Combinations | Total Possible Results | Winning Payout | Payout Rate | Odds of Results 1 in: |
| Bar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2097152 | $750000 | 71.54% | 1048576 |
| Cherry | 4 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 2097152 | $1000 | 1.53% | 65536 |
| Plum | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 2097152 | $200 | 0.46% | 43691 |
| Watermelon | 3 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 2097152 | $100 | 0.29% | 34953 |
| Orange | 4 | 4 | 5 | 80 | 2097152 | $50 | 0.19% | 26214 |
| Lemon | 8 | 7 | 7 | 392 | 2097152 | $25 | 0.47% | 5350 |
| 2 Cherries | 4000 | 2097152 | $10 | 1.91% | 524 | |||
| 1 Cherry | 155744 | 2097152 | $2 | 14.85% | 13 | |||
| Blanks | 103 | 104 | 105 | |||||
| Total | 128 | 128 | 128 | 91.2% |
These types of changes could be made to any particular stop. There are many, many different payout programs (30+), and the gambling industry determines which programs are used on which machines.
So What Are Your Actual Odds?
The way non-mechanical pokies are set up makes it hard to figure out what your actual odds of winning are due to the fact that there are reels you can and cannot see. The displays can over-rate the gambler’s chances of winning the top prizes and can under-rate the chances of winning small prizes. In addition, the spinning reel animation gives you a false impression of possible game outcomes.
The player can have a lot of smaller wins, but over time, these wins will not cover the amount spent. In addition, pokies do not provide you with any information on your odds of winning; for example, the odds of winning the highest prize can vary from 1:40,000 to 1:33,000,000.
Additional Programmed Features
Because all of the results are preprogrammed into the virtual reel, this also includes near misses — which is when winning results almost line up on the reels, but the player still doesn’t win. These misses are a tactic used by the gambling industry to foster longer playtimes. They use the “frustration theory” — when you almost fulfill a goal, but still fail, you start getting frustrated, which pumps you up and results in longer playtime.
These machines are also programmed in a way to trick the player into thinking there is skill involved. Furthermore, encouraging the player to be an active participant when playing increases the illusion that your choices mean anything, rather than it just being pure chance.
Pokies and their environment are specifically designed to make you play longer. Using red lights in casinos instead of blue due to their soothing effect. Dim lights to make you focus on the machine’s flashing lights instead of socialising (causing you to take a break from the machines). Satisfying sound effects when you win to activate your dopamine, etc.
Summary
Basically, just remember this:
Pokies are entirely random.
There is no skill involved; there is no system that works; it’s all about whether Lady Luck smiles down upon you.
The best thing you could do is know on which pokie you’re playing, what are its odds, and most importantly, when to quit.
So remember — have fun and enjoy yourself but always be responsible!